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History Doesn't Repeat, But Bitcoin Sure Loves To Rhyme

The Block Whisperer

January 13, 2025 at 12:08 AMby The Block Whisperer

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Bitcoin hit $108K, then dropped below $90K, echoing 2017's cycle with a 0.92 correlation. Patterns align, but with new factors, history may rhyme, not repeat.

History Doesn't Repeat, But Bitcoin Sure Loves To Rhyme
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Bitcoin's doing that thing again.

You know, the one – where it hits all-time highs, everyone loses their minds, then it drops 20%, and the bears come crawling out of hibernation.

We've seen this movie before. 

Let's talk about why 2025 feels a lot like 2017 👇



The Numbers Don't Lie

First up: Bitcoin just tagged $108K before taking a nosedive below $90K. Now it's bouncing back like nothing happened.

Classic Bitcoin, right?

But dig a little deeper, and things get interesting.



2017 Called, It Wants Its Pattern Back

Check this out:

The 2017 face-melting rally peaked 168 days from its bottom. 

The 2021 run? 160 days.

Today? We're 779 days into this cycle. The correlation with 2017's price action is at 0.92.

That's not just similar – that's "are you copy-pasting the chart" similar.



The Halving Plot Twist

Remember April's halving? 

Bitcoin miners are now getting 3.125 BTC per block instead of 6.25.

Last time this happened? Oh, just a casual 20x run.

But this time's different – Bitcoin was pumping before the halving hit. That's new.



What The Charts Are Screaming

The MVRV Z-Score (fancy way of saying "is Bitcoin expensive?") is giving us serious May 2017 vibes. Back then, Bitcoin was worth a few thousand bucks.

You know what happened next.

The Pi Cycle Oscillator? Flashing green like a crypto rave.

Some analysts are calling for $140K to $210K this cycle. 

But you know what they say about price predictions...



The Reality Check

Look, markets aren't time machines. 

Just because 2017 played out one way doesn't mean 2025 will follow the script.

We've got:


  • A very different macro environment
  • Actual institutional money in the game
  • A whole lot more regulatory eyes watching

And here's the uncomfortable truth: Bitcoin's already made a lot of people rich this cycle.

Could it go higher?

 Sure. Could it dump 40% tomorrow? Also yes. 

Welcome to Bitcoin. Leave your expectations at the door.



The Bottom Line

The similarities to 2017 are uncanny. The data's there. The patterns are rhyming.

But don't bet the farm on history repeating.

While Bitcoin loves to rhyme with its past, it also loves to remind us that past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

Usually, right after you've gone all in.

#Halving
#Cycle
#Bitcoin

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