Canada's Bitcoin-friendly candidate is watching his chances evaporate into thin air as Canadians settle back into the status quo. 

Pierre Poilievre's odds of winning the April 28th election just crashed to 25% on Polymarket, down from a commanding 93% just three months ago.

Meanwhile, his opponent Mark "CBDC" Carney is surging to 76% odds, proving once again that we can't have nice things in crypto.

The Trump Factor

Trump just dropped the ultimate rug pull on Poilievre by basically endorsing his opponent on Fox News.

The U.S. President called Poilievre "no friend of mine" while praising Carney as "easier to deal with" – political speak for "I can push this guy around."

This endorsement hit Poilievre hard, sending his betting odds into a death spiral across platforms like Kalshi, where they're now at a pathetic 22%.

Canadian voters seem more influenced by Trump's opinions than CT is by anonymous whale wallets, which tells you everything you need to know about this election.

The Bitcoin Candidate

Poilievre has been Bitcoin's biggest champion north of the border, practically running on a "Bitcoin fixes this" platform.

He's been calling out the Bank of Canada for "ruining" the Canadian dollar by creating $400 billion "out of thin air" – a critique that would make even the most ardent Bitcoin maximalist proud.

His platform includes treating crypto like commodities for tax purposes and building a regulatory framework that doesn't strangle blockchain innovation.

The pro-Bitcoin crowd has rallied behind him, with endorsements from David Bailey, Brian Armstrong, and Michael Saylor – basically the Mt. Rushmore of Bitcoin evangelists.

The CBDC Challenger

Mark Carney is essentially the final boss for crypto enthusiasts – a former central banker who wants to create a Canadian CBDC.

He's been pushing CBDCs as "the most likely future of money," making privacy-focused Bitcoiners reach for their hardware wallets in horror.

As former Governor of both the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, Carney is the ultimate insider in a space that was created to bypass insiders.

His entire platform screams "trust me, I'm from the government" – the exact opposite of the Bitcoin ethos that Poilievre champions.

The Reality Behind The Move

The reality is that most Canadian voters care about Bitcoin about as much as traders care about project fundamentals during a bull run.

Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant from Queen's University dropped the cold truth that "most Canadians are either indifferent or skeptical about crypto."

Housing affordability, inflation, and immigration are dominating voter concerns while crypto remains a niche issue.

It turns out that promising to make Canada "the blockchain capital of the world" doesn't resonate when people are worried about paying rent.

The Tariff Wildcard

Trump's tariff tirades have overshadowed everything else in this election, including the crypto narrative.

Both candidates are scrambling to position themselves as the best negotiator to deal with America's trade aggression.

Poilievre is criticizing Trump for giving Canada the cold shoulder on tariff suspensions, which is a bold strategy given Trump's obvious preference for his opponent.

Carney is leveraging his global financial experience to position himself as the adult in the room who can navigate these troubled waters.

The Final Countdown

With less than three weeks until election day, Poilievre's Bitcoin-friendly platform is looking less like a moonshot and more like a failed launch.

Carney's CBDC vision is gaining traction simply because voters care more about economic stability than monetary revolution.

Crypto advocates are watching in real-time as their hopes for a Bitcoin-embracing G7 nation slip away.

And the ultimate irony? 

The outcome is being predicted most accurately not by polls or pundits, but by decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket – the very innovation that may never get mainstream adoption in Canada if Carney wins.