A legendary indicator just flashed red for Bitcoin and the entire altcoin market.

Technical expert Tony Severino is warning that the Fischer Transform has flipped bearish for the first time since December 2021.

Some might say this is just another crypto doomsayer crying wolf, but this indicator has literally never missed a major top or bottom on the 12-week timeframe.

The Indicator With A Perfect Track Record

The Fischer Transform converts messy price action into clean signals that even your normie friends could understand.

It smooths out all the noise and highlights when the market is getting seriously overheated.

According to Severino, this thing has a perfect batting average for catching major market turns.

And now it's screaming that we might be headed off a cliff.

We've Been Here Before (And It Wasn't Pretty)

The last two times this indicator flipped bearish were basically crypto-apocalypse events.

January 2018: The market tanked 82% after the signal flashed.

December 2021: Crypto crashed 66% once the indicator turned red.

That kind of track record makes even the most diamond-handed HODLers reconsider whether or not they sell their bags into fiat. 

Severino isn't alone either – the Parabolic SAR and ADX indicators are also suggesting that Bitcoin's bullish momentum is fading fast.

Bitcoin's Potential Death Spiral

Severino has been warning that Bitcoin's top might already be in, and now the Fischer Transform is backing him up.

He's talking about Bitcoin potentially entering a "Supertrend DownTrend" that could send it crashing all the way down to $22,000.

That's a 75% drop from recent highs – basically the kind of move that turns Lambos into Ubers.

The analyst is also using Elliott Wave Theory to explain why he's flipped from bull to bear at a rate that has some folks scratching their heads. 

The Bull Case From Kevin Capital

Not everyone's ready to jump out the window just yet.

Crypto analyst Kevin Capital acknowledges we're in correction territory but thinks this pullback is temporary.

He's watching the liquidity situation, which shows a massive $16 billion in potential short liquidations between here and $107,000.

That kind of imbalance usually ends with shorts getting absolutely rekt when market makers decide to hunt for liquidity.

Capital thinks the real question isn't if Bitcoin bounces, but how hard – either new all-time highs or a lower high followed by another bear run.

The Macro Picture Isn't Helping

Trump's about to drop his tariff announcement, and the market is getting jittery about what it means for risk assets.

ETF inflows are still providing some support, keeping Bitcoin relatively stable at around $83,000 despite the technical warnings.

But when the macro environment gets shaky, Bitcoin tends to drop at rates that have those who bought the top gnashing their teeth and licking their wounds. 

The Levels To Watch

If you're not panic selling yet, here are the key levels to keep an eye on:

The Keltner Channel midline at $67,019 is the big support – lose that and things could get ugly fast.

On the bullish side, a break above $93,000 could send us back to moon mission status and make this Fischer indicator look like a false alarm.

Up, Down, Or Elsewhere?

We've got the Fischer Transform flashing its first bearish signal in over three years.

Every previous signal has led to a market bloodbath that makes the Red Wedding look tame.

But we've also got some decent arguments for why "this time might be different" with ETF flows and institutional adoption.

The next few weeks will either validate a legendary indicator's perfect record or prove that this cycle truly is unlike any we've seen before.

Either way, checking your portfolio every five minutes probably isn't going to help your mental health.